Operation Cast Lead, AKA the Olmert-Livni-Barak Pre-Election Media Circus and Fireworks Show, is over. Ten Jews, one goyshe mercenary and two random goyim with Israeli passports are dead. Some 64 persons, virtually all of them Jews, remain hospitalized with serious wounds. 1.5 billion American dollars have been spent.
The politicos and the IDF are claiming decisive victory. A “reshaped strategic environment” is apparently at hand. Such bombastic claims are typical of conventional forces late in Stage Two guerrilla warfare. In this Stage, the conventional force is always physically stronger than the guerrillas. Its limited incursions into guerilla strongholds are always accompanied by spectacular displays of firepower, providing plenty of opportunities for pretty publicity photos. Unsurprisingly given its total firepower dominance and unchallenged air superiority, the conventional force is able to inflict many more casualties than it takes. But, as we know from our study of guerrilla warfare to date, the conventional force at this stage suffers from collapsing morale. This is not to say that the morale of the individual soldier in the force is low. Often this is not the case. Rather, the morale of those who give the orders is low. As result, victory is never an objective. The objective is to demonstrate “resolve” and “strength”, to win political points with a domestic audience and, perhaps, to improve a negotiating position.
So let’s take stock of the real Operation Cast Lead. Counting only valuable troops, Hamas has suffered some 300 dead. In addition, some 1000 support and low-value Hamas troops were killed. At most, some 5,300 Hamas troops of various categories were wounded. Hamas lost approximately 50% of its major weapons arsenal, mostly to aerial bombing, and fired another 25% at Israel. At no time did the IDF actually penetrate major Hamas strongholds, nor engage the majority of Hamas forces. Rather the IDF limited itself to probing operations, assaults against the periphery of Hamas-controlled territory, patrols in force, raiding and aerial bombing. All that one needs to know about IDF operations in Gaza can be summarized by this simple note: IDF troops continued to move around the battlefield unpredictably, least IDF soldiers become a “stationary target” for Hamas. In other words, at no time did the IDF control any ground, not even the ground under its own feet. The IDF strategy was to nip at the perimeter and run Hamas out of ammunition. When Hamas ran down to 25% ammunition, its troops began to pull back and take up final defensive positions or hide positions, depending on their various orders and operational contingency plans. At this point, the IDF could either attempt to clear Gaza City or withdraw. Hamas would not be provoked by further limited actions.
At the end of the day, the IDF announced a “unilateral cease-fire” and began to withdraw. To the very last moment, Hamas continued to fire rockets at Israel. Hamas troops continued to engage the Israelis. A day later, Hamas announced its own truce and ceased major operations. It did this not due to mounting casualties or operational, much less strategic, defeat, but solely due to a shortage of ammunition. Small-scale Hamas operations, including mortar attacks and sniper activity, continue to this day.
Hamas has 25,000 men under arms. Its arsenals can be replenished within 3 months. It remains in firm control of Gaza. Its forces have learned valuable lessons regarding IDF tactics, techniques and procedures. Hamas has also learned numerous lessons regarding its own vulnerabilities. For example, its units were trained to rely on cell phone communications. When the IDF destroyed the Gaza cellular network, Hamas developed major command and control problems. Rest assured that among the many items being smuggled through the restored tunnels to Rafah are numerous frequency-hopping tactical radios with full-time encryption. It is true that Hamas will lay low for many months to come. Its representatives have offered a truce for an entire year, conditioned on the opening of Gaza borders. It will take time to rebuild its stockpiles, assimilate the lessons of the last battle and train new leaders to replace those who have been lost in battle. But those who claim that Hamas has been “defeated” or “crippled” or even “seriously harmed” are, frankly, lying through their teeth.
Was the IDF victorious? Let’s consider how victory is defined. Military forces can be said to be victorious when they have accomplished the objectives set for them while suffering acceptable losses in personnel and equipment. The objectives of the IDF were never clearly announced. However, we can gather from the blabber of the Olmert-Livni-Barak gaggle that the general objectives were to:
(1) Stop Hamas rocket fire against southern Israel
(2) End Hamas control of Gaza
(3) Demonstrate the recovery of the IDF from the disastrous stewardship of the moronic Dan Halutz
How has the IDF fared?
We can consider objective 3 accomplished. Under the competent leadership of Gabi Ashkenazi, the IDF has demonstrated that it is again a fairly competent army. Gone are the chateau generals of the Second Lebanon War, with their plasma screens and bunkers. Commanders are again where they belong – in the forward TAC if not cruising around at the forward edge of battle, co-located with the main effort TAC or even with the main effort’s lead company CP. We know that proper, aggressive leadership, if not necessarily common sense, is being exercised when a brigade commander accidentally gets ahead of his own front line trace and comes under friendly tank fire. The incident may be somewhat laughable and schoolhouse purists may scoff at the lack of coordination that caused such a faux pas, but those of us who have actually heard the buzzing of AK bullets past our helmets know that these things do occasionally happen in war. There is no indication that friendly fire incidents were unacceptably common in Gaza. Coordination and initiative were very much on display at all levels. The troops did well.
Objective 1 does not look so good. It is true that Hamas has stopped shooting for the moment. However, this is due largely to a lack of ammunition, to the need to assimilate the lessons of the past battle and to the need to adapt to changes in IDF behavior. There is no doubt that rocket fire will resume the moment Hamas has determined that it is ready for the next round.
As for Objective 2, we can consider it a total wash.
Considering the concept of acceptable casualties, we can look at two factors. First there is the question of preservation of capabilities. Certainly with only ten dead and a few dozen wounded, the IDF remains a fully capable fighting force. Losses in personnel and equipment are negligible. On the other hand, if we consider the situation from the point of view of value-for-value exchange, we don’t have a pretty picture. Given that there are some 1.5 billion Moslems in the world while there are only some 6 million Jews in Eretz Yisrael, we can clearly see that a valid 1:1 exchange ratio specifies that in order to gain fair value for the loss of a Jew in the Holy Land, we must kill 250 Moslems. Form this point of view, the IDF did not accomplish even parity exchange with the Moslems in this latest round. Success, which we can define from the Torah perspective as tenfold retaliation, requires us to kill 2500 Moslems for every dead Jew. Certainly the IDF, with its disgusting policy of “purity of arms” is incapable of achieving successful casualty exchange with the Moslem enemy.
So if we view the operation with regard to its official objectives, insofar as such existed, we can consider it at best a mixed bag. However, the true objectives of Operation Cast Lead had nothing to do with the officially announced objectives. Make no mistake about it, Operation Cast Lead was a great success.
The first objective of the operation was to boost the ratings of the establishment politicians. Indeed, this objective has been accomplished. The ratings of both Kadima and Labor increased dramatically during the operation, proving once again that Israel has hands down the stupidest electorate on the planet.
The second objective of the operation was to silence the voices of resistance within the dati leumi camp. The Israeli elite has not been oblivious to the growth of Jewish resistance to its murderous plans. The slow awakening of the youth of Yosh, the slow increase in the number of young men and women who see the IDF as a foreign occupier and the Israeli State as no more legitimate than the British Mandate that preceded it could not be tolerated. The youth were developing a proto-consciousness and a proto-identity. Soon they would comprehend that the answer to their problems lay not in mere opposition to Israeli policy but in a constructive policy of their own. Soon they were going to take up arms and, possibly, even demand independence. They had to be stopped. An illusion of action had to be provided to them. This illusion would prove to the youth that there indeed existed circumstances under which the IDF would be used not to assist Moslem terrorism but to combat it. This illusion would give the addled parents and robotic peers of the few sane youth in Yosh the arguments to silence the scattered voices of sanity. The proto-stirrings toward armed resistance would be aborted as the Jews rallied around the foreign Israeli flag and rushed to support the foreign Israeli army.
Again, this objective has been accomplished. As the operation began, the dati leumi broke out into a dog-like display of slavish adulation, forgetting instantly the decades of oppression and humiliation visited upon them by the monstrous Israeli State. Once again the addled lemmings offered their sons as sacrifices upon the altar of the unclean Israeli Molech. As dati bloggers crowed about miracles, datim expelled from Gush Katif went into battle on behalf of the very army that had expelled them. Fathers whose daughters had been beaten and sexually assaulted at Amona by thugs wearing IDF uniforms donned these same uniforms in order to risk their lives in defense of a regime that will soon order the same travesties repeated a hundredfold. Again the tired old filth about the “holy soldiers of the IDF”, the canard about the “defenders of the Jewish People” was trotted out. Again salaried employees of the Israeli oppression machine disguised as “rabbis” offered prayers and blessings for the Israeli State even as they clutched Israel’s dirty money in their grubby paws.
Yes, ladies and gentlemen, the objective of causing the idiotic dati leumi sector to wag its collective tail and pee all over itself like an ecstatic puppy has been accomplished. Now the stick can come out for another beating. With America’s first Moslem president sending that proven anti-Semite Mitchell to Israel with his obscene demands, the Israeli elite has all the excuses it needs to proceed with plans to expel and crush the entire Jewish population of Yosh. Now that the foolish Jews have been lulled with a display of fake action, they can safely be sucker-punched.
The final phase of Operation Cast Lead is even now being carried out. The establishment was well aware that their right-wing competitor, Avigdor Lieberman, would benefit from military action in Gaza. Lieberman may be a corrupt mafioso, but he is a JEWISH corrupt mafioso. Unlike the likes of Netanyahu(y”sh), Lieberman still has traces of a conscience. Unlike the naïve Feiglin, who is content to play silly games inside the Likud in exchange for fictional places on the Knesset roster, Lieberman actually has a chance of stopping the Israeli expulsion of Jews from Yosh. His party could very well outstrip Labor and maybe even Kadima, becoming the second or third largest party in the Knesset. Therefore, Lieberman has to be neutralized. The way to do this is twofold. First, Lieberman will be threatened with imprisonment. The charges against him will even be largely true. The beauty of bringing charges against a corrupt gangster is that there is no need to invent them. One must merely doctor the evidence shade or two to get from “guilty but we can’t prove it” to “guilty beyond a reasonable doubt”. Once Lieberman is on the hook, he will be offered large bribes in exchange for what is left of his honor. Lieberman will take the money. He supported the expulsion from Gush Katif and he will support the coming expulsion also. In the end, he is no more moral and far less courageous than Ariel Sharon(y”sh).
So here is the true outcome of Operation Cast Lead. The Israeli establishment has consolidated its slipping grip on power in preparation for another election farce. With a lot of propaganda, a couple of threats, some bribery and a little fraud, we can be assured that the next government will seat Netanyahu(y”sh), Barak(y”sh) and Livni(y”sh) in a tight clique ready to deliver what they believe will be a death blow to the dati leumi. In the meantime, the voices of sanity among the dati leumi are being opposed by re-invigorated voices of lunacy. Once again idiots and mamlachti heretics are claiming that Medinat Israel is a Jewish State and that by waving orange ribbons and casting meaningless ballots, the Jews of Yosh can forestall a massed Israeli assault on their homes and communities.
The sole question remaining before us now that we understand the purpose and outcome of Operation Cast Lead is how to resist this new effort to destroy the Jewish People in the Holy Land. To this there can be only one answer. We must re-double our efforts to convince the Jews of Yosh that the Israeli enemy is out to murder every single one of them. After the new Israeli government is seated, it will take them time to pump up propaganda and prepare for the next phase of their Nazi-like pogrom plan. If the growth of Jewish national consciousness is more rapid than the Israeli ramp up for the greatest pogrom since 1945, it may yet be possible to save the Jewish communities of Yosh from annihilation. Only by convincing the Jews of the Holy Land that Medinat Yehudah is the only answer can those few of us who are sane save the addled masses of insane Jewish lemmings.